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Bear Bets are real bets made by Chris “Bear” Fallica.
The PGA Championship weekend is finally over here! It’s time to get back into the swing of things and make some winning bets on some of the best golfers in the world.
John Rahm is the current favorite to win the tournament, +750 at FOX Bet.
Speaking of favorites, there have been 31 majors since Rory McIlroy’s last major win at the 2014 PGA Championship, yet he’s the third choice on the odds board this week. Personally, I’m going to step away from Rory this week and pick the next plays.
Let’s dive into the bets I’m making for this event.
Scotty Scheffler: +750 to win, -115 to top 10
Scheffler and Ram are 1A and 1B at the moment when it comes to the best players in the world. Scheffler posted a top 10 in Augusta despite apparently not shooting all week. That’s how strong his game is.
He also shockingly missed the cut at Southern Hills last year on the heels of his Masters win, and a result like this this week would be another surprise. But I wouldn’t expect it from someone who has had a win since the start of 2020 and three top five, top seven, and top 10 out of 11 majors.
I’m not getting nice about a pre-tournament fight. I chose my fighter, Scheffler. Betting on it to win and finish in the top 10 this week.
Tom Kim: +8000 to win, +650 to top 10
If you are looking for a long range bet, we have you covered. This major has offered some huge prices, and this course has delivered Jason Dufner And Sean Michelle Since the winners of the last two majors are held there, so I’m going to throw this one in there as a great pick.
Kim has come off some buzz since the start of the year, but a look inside the numbers shows a very strong year, as he ranks 15th in SG: Tee-to-Green, fourth in driving accuracy and third in scrambling. These metrics are important on a cycle with this type of rough. He posted a T-16 finish in Augusta, and after an opening round 71 last week, he went 66-69-65 over the last three rounds. Kim is going to run a race in one of these disciplines sooner rather than later, and that might be it.
Xander Schavelli: +175 top 10
Xander Schauffele: -164 against Justin Thomas
Schauffele is a model of consistency in the majors, as evidenced by his last four rounds, which feature T-10, T-15, T-14, and T-13 finishes. Maybe we should play it to finish in the top 20 instead of the top 10, but I like the number. Over his career, Schauffele has played in 23 majors. He has had six top fives, ten top 10s, and 16 top 20 finishes. This is a good derivatives exchange path and is likely to be head-to-head.
He’s also in great shape, with his most recent three-stroke events being a runner-up at Wells Fargo, fourth at RBC, and a T-10 at the Masters. And don’t forget about the T-5th in the Match Play event and the T-4th in the Team Zurich event.
Schauvelli may not get his name off this week’s “Best Never to Win a Major” list, but he should once again manage to finish strong. I’ll take him head-to-head against PGA Champion Justin Thomas, whose game didn’t seem to click. Thomas missed out on losing at The Masters and finished 60th at THE PLAYERS, the two biggest events he has contested this year.
True Thigala: +300 top 20
Theegala has seven top-10s from her 18 events, including the Masters. He is not the best driver statistically, but he is one of the best batsmen, and ranks ninth in average. I’ll take a little piece of the top 20 this weekend.
Ricky Fowler: +250 top 20
If you weren’t paying attention, Fowler has only been outside the top 20 once in his last nine events. He’s 11th in TOUR in SG: Total and seems to be in a great place both physically and mentally through his game. This would be his first major of the year after not earning a place in the master’s field.
Phil Mickelson That miss cut -180
Mickelson’s second place at the Masters was incredible but also an anomaly. He had missed the cut in each of the three previous majors, and there was nothing in his form entering Augusta to make anyone think they would compete as well as he did. I think the familiarity with the Augusta National and a shorter field helped him cruise well this weekend, but this course is a different animal. I was expecting the rough to be a place where we would find Mickelson a lot, who would probably send him home at the weekend.
Brooks Koepka To miss cut +300
Each major seems to have two names that miss the cut and raise one’s eyebrows. Koepka may be a candidate here for that honor. It was great at the Masters in rounds one and two, and then we had a dip at the end of the week. He also missed cuts in two of the four majors last year. Yes, he’s healthier now, but there might be a little “LIV backtracking” here, as many of their players who played so well in the familiar Augusta National tournament may not be doing as well this week.
Justin Thomas To miss cut +275
As mentioned earlier, the current champion has not been at his best this year on the biggest stagesAnd And he wasn’t great this year, ranking 118th in driving accuracy. That can lead to a lot of hard second strikes and put a lot of pressure on a putter that was also bad – No. 138 in SG: putting.
Chris “Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While his focus has been on college football, he also enjoys NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL, and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” bet on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished 10th in the Golden Nugget Football competition. He is a multi-time NHC Handicapping Championship qualifier. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @Chrisvillea.
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