Carbon dioxide measurements were interrupted by a volcanic eruption

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On top of the Mauna Loa volcano on the Big Island of Hawaii, just over two miles above sea level, a 124-foot-tall aluminum tower has been collecting carbon dioxide measurements nearly hourly, every day, for more than 60 years.

That stopped Sunday night, when Mauna Loa erupted and a lava flow cut off power to the monitoring lab there. On Thursday, lava was still moving downhill from the volcano, bypassing roads but posing few risks to nearby communities.

It was a rare interruption in data collection that produced the world’s longest continuous record of rising levels of heat-trapping carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.






Measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations from the Mauna Loa Observatory, in parts per million carbon dioxide2.

The most recent volcanic eruption paused data collection for a month.

One of the record’s longest hiatuses was due to budget cuts.

The zigzags of the curve reflect seasonal cycles in the northern hemisphere that repeat each year.

Measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations from the Mauna Loa Observatory, in parts per million carbon dioxide2.

The most recent volcanic eruption paused data collection for a month.

One of the record’s longest hiatuses was due to budget cuts.

The zigzags of the curve reflect seasonal cycles in the northern hemisphere that repeat each year.

Measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations from the Mauna Loa Observatory, in parts per million carbon dioxide2.

The most recent volcanic eruption paused data collection for a month.

The zigzags of the curve reflect seasonal cycles in the northern hemisphere that repeat each year.


The record, named the Keeling Curve after the geochemist Charles David Keeling who started the monitoring project in 1958, reveals a saw-toothed line that steadily tapers upward over time. This pattern is considered by many scientists to be the most important evidence that climate is changing due to human activity.

“I think it is very true that this record has shaped entire careers,” said Ralph, the son of Dr. Keeling.

Prior to Dr. Keeling’s larger work, many scientists believed that oceans and forests would absorb excess carbon dioxide emitted from burning fossil fuels.

The Keeling curve has, over time, disproved this idea. It’s beginning to reveal how much carbon dioxide the land and oceans can absorb, said Maureen E. Raimo, director of Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and co-founding dean of the Columbia School of Climate.

The carbon dioxide accumulated in the atmosphere accounts for about half of the amount that humans emit by burning fossil fuels. A quarter is absorbed by the oceans and another quarter is absorbed by forests and stored in ecosystems on Earth.

Over the past six decades, measurements have only been interrupted a handful of times: for three months in 1964 due to federal budget cuts and for just over a month in 1984 when the volcano last erupted and the power went out.

said Dr. Ralph Keeling, who took over the monitoring after his father’s death in 2005.

Meanwhile, officials are considering flying a generator via helicopter to the Mauna Loa Observatory, which is operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. NOAA runs a second carbon dioxide monitoring program there that has also been disrupted by the power outage.





The eruption began

Moku’āweoweo caldera

The eruption began

Moku’āweoweo caldera





Source: Copernicus


Notes: Satellite image captured on November 28, 2022. Heat from a lava flow highlighted using infrared data.

There are hundreds of other monitoring stations around the world, including more than 70 operated by NOAA, so world record keeping will continue. But nothing carries quite the same symbolism as Mauna Loa, which is home to the first and most frequent daters.

In the late 1950s, Dr. Keeling developed the first technology for accurate measurements of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

The first measurements of Mauna Loa that he made as part of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography program recorded an average carbon dioxide concentration of 313 parts per million, which means that for every million air molecules, 313 are carbon dioxide molecules.

Now, levels have peaked around 421 parts per million, which is at least the highest concentration 4 million years. Last year, carbon dioxide emissions totaled 36.3 billion tons, the highest level in history.

Without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the planet is on track to warm by an average of 2.1 to 2.9 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels, by 2100, according to A recent report issued by the United Nations.

This is well above the ambitious target endorsed by governments in the 2015 Paris climate agreement, and it exceeds the threshold beyond which scientists say the risk of climate catastrophes increases dramatically.





NOAA Observatory, the highest peak of Mauna Loa.




Susan Cobb/NOAA

While the Keeling Curve reveals a clear upward trend, it also exhibits an almost rhythmic zigzag and zigzag pattern, reflecting the Northern Hemisphere seasonal cycles that repeat each year. Many scientists like to say that it shows that the Earth is “breathing”.

During the boreal winter, Earth “exhales” carbon dioxide, as plants decompose and plants reduce photosynthesis, said Colm Sweeney, co-director of NOAA’s Global Monitoring Laboratory. When spring comes and the vegetation returns, plants and phytoplankton in the ocean begin to absorb more carbon dioxide.

The amplitude of this zigzag, or the difference between the highs and lows of seasonal fluctuations, is also getting larger. It may be a sign, Dr. Sweeney said, that the growing season in the Northern Hemisphere is starting earlier in the year, as warmer temperatures cause snow to melt and trees grow, essentially “the wheel turning faster.”

Keeling Curve is very much a victory for Dr. Keelings. and commitment to laborious accuracy Required to create a record that can withstand auditing. Dr. Keeling said his father examined the measurements closely, and talked about every last digit. colleagues too Description of Keeling the Elder as “a constant in every detail”.





Lava flow from Tuesday’s eruption.




Marco Garcia / Associated Press

He wanted to find the perfect place to do the monitoring, and chose Mauna Loa because of its remote location, away from sources of carbon dioxide such as dense population centers or roads, and carbon sinks such as areas of dense vegetation.

Even now, when scientists want to test new CO2-monitoring equipment, Dr. Sweeney said, “they go to Mauna Loa.”

Technology has evolved to become more accurate over time. Over the past decade and a half, Dr. Sweeney said, “we’ve increased the degree to which we can see fine details in a record almost an order of magnitude.” These nuances amount to small, but important differences, because the researchers are interested in changes in carbon dioxide levels as low as one part in four thousand.

Dr. Ralph Keeling said the Keeling curve delivers “a simple message, and that simple message stayed true.”

Although he hopes one day the curve will start to look different — to curve, flatten and even begin to slope downward, indicating a decline and eventual end to the carbon dioxide emissions that humans are rapidly pumping into the air.

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