Goldman Sachs overall bearish forecast puts Bitcoin at risk of crashing to $12,000


A series of macro warnings from the Goldman Sachs camp put Bitcoin (BTC) is at risk of crashing to $12,000.

Bitcoin in ‘bottom stage’?

A team of Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius Starch Their expectation is that the Fed will raise interest rates quickly. They noted that the US central bank will raise interest rates by 0.75% in September and 0.5% in November, up from their previous expectations of 0.5% and 0.25%, respectively.

The trajectory of the Fed’s rate hike has played a major role in determining bitcoin price trends in 2022. The period of rising lending rates – from near zero to a range of 2.25-2.5% now – has prompted investors to exit riskier assets and search for shelter therein. Safer alternatives like cash.

Bitcoin is down nearly 60% since the beginning of the year, and is now teetering around its psychological support of $20,000. Some analysts, including trader with the pseudonym Doctor Profit, believe that the price of BTC has entered the bottom line at the current levels. However, the merchant warned:

“Please consider the upcoming decisions of the Federal Reserve. 0.75% [rate hike] Our price is already 1% and we see blood.”

BTC/USD price performance comparison between 2012-2016 and 2020-2022. Source: Doctor Profit / TradingView

On the other hand, Bitcoin is constantly Positive correlation with the US stock marketEspecially those with high tech Nasdaq Compositecarries the risk of a deeper correction.

Sharon Bell, strategist at Goldman Sachs, suggest Recent Stock Market Rally May Be Bull Traps, Echoing Her Company warning That stocks could crash 26% if the Federal Reserve becomes bolder with its rate increases to fight inflation.

Interestingly, the warnings coincide with the recent surge in Bitcoin short positions held by institutional investors, according to CME data outlined in the CFTC’s weekly report.

CME Bitcoin derivatives held by smart money. Source: CFTC / Ecoinometrics

“Definitely a sign that some people are counting on the risk of an asset crash this fall,” pointed Nick, Data Resource Analyst in Environmental Metrics.

Options Compatibility See BTC at $12,000

Bitcoin options expiring at the end of 2022 show that most traders are betting on the price of BTC falling all the way Down to $ 10-000-12000 region.

BTC options unlock interest at the strike price. Source: Coinglass

Overall, the buy-to-be open ratio was 1.90 on September 18, with the maximum weight for call options at the strike price of $45,000. But the strike in prices between $10,000 and $23,000 showed at least four options for every three orders – perhaps a more realistic tentative assessment of market sentiment.

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From a technical perspective, Bitcoin could drop almost 30% to $13,500 as the price is convincing. Inverted up and handle pattern.

BTC/USD daily price chart with a cup distribution setting and an inverted handle. Source: TradingView

Conversely, a decisive rise above the 50-day EMA (the 50-day EMA; red wave) near $21,250 could invalidate this bearish setup, putting BTC higher towards $25,000. As a next upside goal.

The opinions and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Every investment and trading move involves risks, you should do your own research when making a decision.