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Like I said last week, I’ve spent about seven or eight years writing an annual Football Outsiders Almanac list called Top 25 Odds. This list of players has a lot of qualifiers – they have to have 500 career shots or less, they need to be drafted after the second round, etc – it’s a fun exercise, but to be honest, it completely limits the group a bit. There isn’t much football to watch for these players in the pro at 500 shots or less, and the bottom end of the roster is usually bypassed by players who caught the eye in college or garnered high praise from their camp coaches, but who didn’t get much attention before the season at a professional level.
So I will not go into the limitations of this column. I won’t get many surprises. I’ll just promise to show you the young players that the spirit of the age hasn’t settled on yet, and I’ll talk about them and why I think they’re great.
first week Authenticity Check: Donovan Peoples Jones And the Trillon borax. Birx led the team in yards and goals this week as the Titans collapsed. Peoples-Jones had a touchdown on the board that would have saved his fantasy day, but surprisingly he didn’t participate at all, only getting one more goal while Brown re-calibrated Amary Cooper.
This week, let’s talk about two of Round 4 of this year’s category: Damon Pierce And the Romeo Dobbswho took in a lot of the pre-season hype and found themselves in vastly different situations in week three.
Damon Pierce Dominates the Texas back ground in the second week
Luffy Smith After the first week, he was very persistent about wanting to get Pierce more involved in the running game in Texas. I thought Pierce was going to transform somewhat gradually Rex BurkheadTrusted role – No, this was more like a knockout. Pierce got all the time in the game where he played Texas Bronco. It’s all too easy to look at the results of pregnancy and get frustrated, even as I know some of you have already drilled into your head “size is key to imagination”. Pierce has 26 holders for 102 yards after two games. He only has two goals while Burkhead continues to control the passing turn.
What I want to impress you is that Pierce’s 3.9-yard results are – from a football standpoint – a miracle. Last year, the Texans had a single 3.5-yard run per attempt — Burkhead — and only got there because of a 22-yard and 149-yard game against chargers. He averaged 2.8 yards per carry prior to that game, and he averaged 2.54 yards per carry in the remaining two games of the season after that. In their Week 1 tie against the Colts, Burkhead averaged 2.9 yards per carry. Texans have finished dead in the past in the DVOA offensive in each of the last two seasons. They’ve spent the year introducing a three-legged narrow-end and extra heavy sets dating back to the mid-’90s. Unleashed streaks, tight ends, and backs have scored 209 shots this year for Texans. 107 long distances have been scored without a start. It’s hard to gain extra yards when you’re overcrowded with big people and limiting chances of breaking saves and corners.
I don’t think Pierce had an excellent run in the group, but you can see how slippery he was on his longer campaigns. He fights for every last arena. The advanced stats aren’t nice – minus the seven rushing yards above expectations for all of the NFL Next Gen Stats. if Kenyon Green – Especially seen breathing on a block in the red – Develops fast, and there’s a chance he and Pierce will turn this running game into a regular game instead of the cesspool it’s been in since David Johnson trade.
Last week was your low buying window on a pierce of not-so-smart fantasy managers. But I think you could argue that there are some upsides to Pierce for the rest of the season as well based on both the volume he’s expected to carry and the fact that he’s Luffy Smith He’s a dinosaur that’s happy to stick with a running game. This team can hardly trust Davis Mills. They have already Jeff Driskill It comes in third and short reading assignments. Mills’ pass completed only 20 yards off the field this season was a flea flash. They showed no interest in throwing Mills down at two minutes of digging tools unless absolutely necessary. The ideal game scenario for this team is for each team to have problems breaking 20 points.
Pierce RB1 can’t be real with this crime unless it’s literal Adrian Peterson It’s in its infancy, but I think the high-end RB2 is the finish to consider in play. It’s probably a low-level RB2 and/or a high-end FLEX game based on a whole bunch of hits right now, but the way Aaron Jones Just ran the Bears in Week 2 – Pierce could ever find himself in Week RB1 Heavy Carnage. The way Houston wants to handle it this year largely indicates that he has boom weeks.
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The target situation in Green Bay is not yet stable; Can Romeo Dobbs Will it be part of the solution this year?
On the other end of the scale, we have a large number of people quickly shoved out of the room. Allen Lazard He came back healthy in the first week, Christian Watson He was digging into the sudden charges, and Sammy Watkins More player appears on the same page with Aaron Rodgers. Where does that star leave before the season? Romeo Dobbs?
Doubs only came out for 25 shots in Week 2, the third most on the team but barely ahead Christian Watson (22) and Randall Cope (20). It’s a slight upgrade from week one, with Watson playing in front of him and catching him with ease while Cobb narrowly beat Doubs 37-35. Both Watson and Doubs are made with easier touches as part of the Matt LaFleur Short game he had no choice but to ride with it for a while Elgton Jenkins (week 1) and David Bakhtiari (Both weeks) Time wasted. Aaron Rodgers He took seven sacks in two games.
Doubs hasn’t done anything wrong per se, but he’s not ahead of the match yet either. He and Rodgers weren’t on the same page on some of his early goals. It also flopped after its only completion that really looks like it came in contested coverage. The rest, well, he’s made more of by beating the NFL defenders. I’m not saying this to put Dobbs off as a player. cooper cup And the Amon-Ra Saint Brown Getting a lot of production this way, production matters more to me than how it happens. But you’d rather have both, right?
I don’t actually feel like we’ve seen what the Packers’ real attack looks like yet – I know Doubs is explosive enough to be a part of it at some point if he cleans up the bugs. How long will it take him to do this? This is the magic question. It’s easy to give him goals on screen against the struggling Bears, but it’s not like he’s a newbie just jumping off picks in the first two weeks and screaming he should get more shots. I think there might be a point this season where it has fantastical value on a rework level because, really, I don’t trust Randall Cope To do a lot of anything at his age. I do not trust Sammy Watkins to stay healthy. I like Lazard just fine, but Lazard has missed matches in every season since 2020.
But trying to discern whether it was Watson or Doubs who would take the leap at this point is not an easy answer. You probably can’t start either of them with confidence next week against Tampa Bay unless you’re in a league of three flex or into something with real depth. However, at the same time, all it takes is one deep ball from Rodgers to finish 24th in any given week. I would now lean towards, in shallow leagues, allowing someone else to carry Doubs on a roster and waive their claim when there is real movement in front of them – injury or otherwise – that shows us which shots or target engagement we really want to see. But the upside is that I also can’t blame you for holding out.
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