The expected line-up and what has to be right to win the World Championship

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to me VelesIt was an unlikely trip to Game 6 of the World Series last season considering everything that went wrong.

There was a 22-29 start that resulted in Joe Girardi being ejected. He was replaced by Rob Thomson, a baseball player who had never played in the major leagues before.

An elbow injury limited Bryce Harper as DH before he was shelved for two months with a broken hand. and a 3-9 stretch last September that almost put the kibosh on the Phillies’ postseason hopes.

But oh, those Phillies can hit, which they did in copious proportions. The 46 were led by Kyle Schwarber, mostly from the lead, and of course, Harper winning a homer in the eighth inning to strike out the Padres in Game 5 of the NLCS.

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And they can play, at least, with the top two rookies Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. Even the bulls base, long a major weakness, has become a force led by Ceranthone Domínguez and Jose Alvarado.

It all provides the backdrop for how the Phillies could not only run in the World Series again, but win it for only the third time in team history.

That assignment begins Thursday at 4:05 p.m. when the Phillies open the 2023 season against the Texas Rangers in Arlington, Texas. The Phillies will start with Aaron Nola, and they’ll take on a familiar enemy in longtime Mets star Jacob DeGrum, who signed with the Rangers during the offseason.

Sure, the Phillies are already facing some of the same challenges they did last season. Harper had elbow surgery off-season, and even the most optimistic reports didn’t see him return until the end of May.

Last week the Phillies lost their first baseman Rhys Hoskins tore his anterior cruciate ligament. He won’t be back this season. In addition, pitcher Ranger Suarez is nursing a forearm strain, and linebacker Andrew Painter, who turns 20 on April 10, was expected to field in the fifth until he was held up with an elbow injury.

Even with all of that, the Phillies are actually better hitters after signing Trea Turner to an 11-year, $300 million contract.

They’re also better as pitchers with Taijuan Walker replacing the mostly ineffective Kyle Gibson in the rotation, and promising starters Painter and/or Matt Abel in a Phillies game at some point this season.

Remarkably, the Phillies have a deeper opportunity with former basemen Gregory Soto (30 tackles last season for the Tigers) and Craig Kimbrel (22 tackles final season with the Dodgers, 394 in his career) working with Dominguez and Alvarado late on. roles.

Projected opening day lineup phillies

The pitching matchup features Nola (11-13, 3.25 ERA in 2022) vs. DeGrum (5-4, 3.08 with the Mets in 2022).

  1. Trea Turner, SS

  2. Kyle Schwarber, LF

  3. JT Realmoto, C

  4. Darrick Hall, 1b

  5. Nick Castellanos, Dr

  6. Bryson Stott, 2b

  7. Alec Baum, 3b

  8. Brandon Marsh, CF

  9. Jake Cave, RF

Philadelphia Phillies first team senior, Rhys Hoskins, after being injured against the Detroit Tigers during the second inning of a spring training baseball game Thursday, March 23, 2023, in Clearwater, Florida.

Philadelphia Phillies first team senior, Rhys Hoskins, after being injured against the Detroit Tigers during the second inning of a spring training baseball game Thursday, March 23, 2023, in Clearwater, Florida.

Replacing Rhys Hoskins (and Bryce Harper for two months)

Phillies have been here before. They went two months without Harper last season when he fractured his hand. The Phillies went 32-20 without him.

They will have the same challenge that Harper is expected to miss at least the first two months of the season. Turner can make up for a good portion of that production. Turner had 21 homers, 100 RBIs and 27 stolen bases last season for the Dodgers.

But the most immediate concern is Hoskins’ 30 bathroom replacements from last season.

This, too, is achievable. Darrick Hall, left-handed, hit nine homers in 136 homers last season. If he hits that average this season, playing mostly against right-handers, that would expect him to hit 27 homers in 408 batters. As a starting left fielder, the Phillies can move Alec Baum to first base and put Edmundo Sosa or Josh Harrison at third.

In addition, the Phillies should get increased production from Bohm, who had four homers and 27 RBIs in the first three months last season (.699 OPS), and nine homers and 52 RBIs in the last three months (.730 OPS). ). The same is true with Stott, who had four homers, 21 RBIs in the first three months (.561 OPS) and six homers, and 28 RBIs in the last three (.735 OPS).

There is definitely room to grow as Baum is 26 and Stott is 25.

It’s also safe to assume that Nick Castellanos, who signed a five-year, $100 million contract extension this past spring, will come back somewhat from an awful 2022 season. Castellanos had 13 homers and 62 RBIs last season with a career-worst 0.694 OPS. In 2021, Castellanos’ final season with the Reds, he had 34 hits, 100 RBIs and a 0.939 OPS.

Even something in the middle of those two seasons would be a huge lift for the Phillies.

Trea Turner of the Philadelphia Phillies shakes hands with Brandon Marsh (16) after Turner hit a two-run double off Detroit Tigers Joey Wentz during the fifth inning of a spring training baseball game Thursday, March 23, 2023, in Clearwater, Florida.

Trea Turner of the Philadelphia Phillies shakes hands with Brandon Marsh (16) after Turner hit a two-run double off Detroit Tigers Joey Wentz during the fifth inning of a spring training baseball game Thursday, March 23, 2023, in Clearwater, Florida.

Kyle Schwarber and the Tria Turner influence

Perhaps no one will benefit more from the new rules banning turnarounds than Schwarber – on two fronts.

Schwarber turned against 91% of the time last season, according to MLB.com, and he had a career-low . 218 batting average. With only two tackles on the right side of the diamond, Schwarber should have more room for muscle balls in right field.

In addition, Schwarber would benefit from beating behind Turner for second in the standings. Turner stole 27 bases last season, a number that’s expected to rise due to another base change: an increase in the size of the bases from 15 inches to 18 inches.

Turner has a career on-base percentage of . 355. When he is on first base, the first baseman has to bag him because he threatens to steal, thus creating more room for Schwarber.

Sure enough, Schwarber hit 200 last season, a number he’ll have to reduce. But with Turner at first base, he should see more fastballs, too.

MLB.com projects Schwarber to get 12 more hits this season based on the rules. But you should increase more than that if he reduces strikes.

Monsters NL East?

It’s easy to forget that the Braves and Mets both went 101-61 last season, while the Phillies finished third in the loaded NL East by going 87-75.

The Phillies went 13-25 combined against the Braves and Mets last season, and have played each of their NL East foes 19 times. Sure, the Phillies made up for it by going 16-3 against the sad-sack Nationals, who are supposed to be worse this season.

But with a balanced schedule, the Phillies only play 13 games against the Braves and Mets.

And the Mets, in particular, could shrink somewhat this season.

The Mets added pitcher Justin Verlander, who is 40, to go along with Max Scherzer, who is 38. But in addition to DeGrom, the Mets have lost Walker to the Phillies in free agency, Chris Bassett to the Blue Jays, and free agent Jose Quintana will be out until the second half of the season due to injury.

It got worse when star closer Edwin Diaz lost the season when he tore his knee in the World Baseball Classic, leaving potential former Philly David Robertson closer. That’s a big drop.

The Phillies, even with Hoskins and Harper out, along with Suarez and Pinter, are deeper than both teams. If they can survive until Harper’s return, and avoid major injuries to Nola and/or Wheeler, they should be able to roll in the second half.

And this time, they are talented enough to win the world championship.

Contact Martin Frank at [email protected]. Follow us on Twitter @Mfranknfl.

This article originally appeared in the Delaware News Journal: Preview of the 2023 Phillies season: The expected lineup and the return of the World Series?

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