None of the top two World Baseball Classic players safely enter the final day of the group stage.
With only the fixture list remaining on Wednesday, Team USA and the Dominican Republic will be sitting at 2-1 and could see their chances of qualifying for the knockout stage of the tournament disappear if they lose. At the same time, by winning, the USA team can clinch a place in the next round.
Team USA will take on Colombia, who are sitting 1-2 and will take on their opponent in the standings with a win Wednesday. Canada 2-1 and Mexico 2-1, meanwhile, will play each other early in the day, with the winner and loser guaranteed to qualify for either an elimination (if Team USA wins) or a three-way showdown with the USA-Colombia in a USA-lost event (more More on that later).
Meanwhile, the Dominican Republic’s situation is much simpler. Venezuela actually led after starting 3-0, and Puerto Rico 2-1 as well. On Wednesday, the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico play a head-to-head elimination match.
Groups A and B were already decided, with Cuba and Italy exiting A via tie-break after all five teams finished 2-2 and undefeated Japan in Group B, followed by Australia 3-1.
When does Team USA play in the World Baseball Classic?
The US-Colombia match-up is scheduled for 10pm EST (FS1) at Chase Stadium in Arizona. Canada plays Mexico at 3pm EST (FS2) at the same location, while the Puerto Rico-Dominican Republic match will be at 7pm EST (FS1) at Depot Park in Miami.
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Here’s the full standings going into Wednesday, with every team, with the exception of Great Britain, playing three of their four matches. The Brits have already played all four teams in the group and have been eliminated:
a team | Wins | losses |
United States of America | 2 | 1 |
Canada | 2 | 1 |
Mexico | 2 | 1 |
Colombia | 1 | 2 |
Great Britain | 1 | 3 |
So it’s a win-win for each of the three North American countries. If Team USA wins, it advances, and the loser is Mexico-Canada. But with Team USA losing, things get complicated.
What happens in a Team USA tiebreaker?
Here are the WBC’s first and second tiebreaker rules, taken directly from the MLB website:
The team that wins matches between tied teams is given the highest place. If three or more teams are tied and one of those teams wins its games against all the other teams tied with it, it is placed in the higher position. Likewise, if one of those tied teams loses its games against all of the other teams tied with it, it will be placed in the lowest point.
The tied teams are ranked in the standings by the least quotient of the lowest number of runs allowed divided by the number of defensive teams scored in games in that round between the tied teams.
A loss for the United States would result in a three-way showdown with Colombia and losing Mexico and Canada. The first tiebreaker depends on this last team, as Colombia would qualify if the other two teams were the United States and Mexico because they would have beaten both teams.
If Mexico wins and puts Canada into the three-way showdown, things will progress to a second tiebreaker, with the USA beating Canada, Canada beating Colombia, and Colombia beating the United States.
Here are the running stakes in games involving a tie between Team USA, Canada, and Colombia. Canada allowed 12 runs for 48 in their matches against the United States and Colombia. The USA team allowed one run against 21 out in its win over Canada, and Columbia allowed five runs against 27 out in its loss to Canada.
We don’t need to go into all the math, but here’s the state of play: If the USA team loses four runs or fewer, the Americans lead as long as they allow no more than 11 runs. If Colombia wins by five or more runs, they advance as long as they allow no more than 13 runs. Essentially, Canada was praying for a farcical, high-scoring game, and the United States would enter the game with a four-run lead over Colombia.
Here’s a breakdown of what happens with each pair of winners on Wednesday:
Mexico wins | Canada wins | |
The United States wins | Mexico, USA | USA and Canada |
Colombia wins | Mexico, a three-way tiebreaker | Canada, Colombia |
No one ever said that pool is simple.
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As a reminder, this is where things stand in Miami:
a team | Wins | losses |
Venezuela | 3 | 0 |
dominican republic | 2 | 1 |
Puerto Rico | 2 | 1 |
Israel | 1 | 2 |
Nicaragua | 0 | 4 |
Given the hype surrounding Team USA and Team Dominican Republic entering the tournament, it’s evidence of the World Baseball Classic mayhem that both the USA and the Democrats face a very real chance of elimination on Wednesday.
Team USA’s lineup is so stacked that it was striking Jeff McNeil, 2022 MLB All-Star, ninth. The Dominican Republic opened the tournament with Gary Sanchez, a two-time All-Star and Silver Slugger, at the same venue.
Both teams faced some questions about their bid, but that should have been a moot point when they faced the likes of Japan and Cuba – not in the first round.
