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It wasn’t about the gram of cannabis oil. But the WNBA star Brittney Griner has been arrested In the new geopolitical struggle between Russia and the United States. She has been imprisoned since her arrest at Moscow airport in February for carrying the gram. In August, Russia sentenced her to nine years in a penal colony.
This morning, the White House announced that Greiner was released On her way home to the United States. She was replaced in the UAE by the notorious Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout, nicknamed “Merchant of Death,” which had been held in the United States for more than a decade.
“After months of unjust detention in Russia, under unbearable conditions, Britney will soon be back in the arms of her loved ones, and she should have been there the whole time,” said President Joe Biden.
Taking the case to the White House shows the importance of bringing home an American citizen held in outrageous conditions. (A senior administration official said Thursday that President Joe Biden has been “personally tracking” the negotiations.) But it is too early to say it has larger implications for the US role in the Russia-Ukraine war.
Here’s what we know about how and why the prisoner swap happened now, and what else it might mean.
How Brittney Griner Was Brought Home
The most likely explanation is also the most obvious: Victor Bout trading with Brittney Griner could be the best deal for both Russia and the United States. It took some time for each side to realize this.
Biden administration Make a copy of this general framework About six months ago, it offered a bot swap for Greiner and Paul Whelan, a US corporate security director and ex-Marine convicted of espionage who’s been held in Russia since 2018. But at the time, that deal didn’t seem to be gaining much traction.
What’s particularly interesting is that the deal was announced. We don’t usually hear such details. “It was exceptionally rare in this process,” said Danielle Gilbert, a fellow at Dartmouth College who studies hostage negotiations.
Meanwhile, both Russia and the United States have taken measures to improve their influence. The Russians followed Greiner, for which the court issued a harsh prison sentence, and then transferred her to a penal colony. In recent months, the United States has worked with partners to Arrest Russians around the world, especially because of evading sanctions. The administration official said the United States “relied on” its partners around the world “to tell the Russians how serious we are about resolving issues of wrongful detention.”
The two sides continued to maneuver until they finally reverted to some version of the initial framework. But Whelan wasn’t included—perhaps because his case involved espionage, according to Gilbert. Whelan was visiting Russia for a wedding and Cannes Accused As a military intelligence official who holds classified information, he was convicted in what the United States described as a show trial.
We’ve tried all kinds of alternatives. “We’ve tried, of course, to pay the lowest possible price,” a senior Biden administration official told reporters today at a briefing. “But in the end, we feel the moral obligation and the policy obligation to bring home people who are held hostage or unjustly detained.”
There is a possibility that there are other items in the deal. There may be something completely secret that we do not know and will not know, something that would be in the interest of both Russia and the United States to keep behind closed doors. After all, that’s how 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis It was resolved, through quiet diplomacy, of which the full picture was not clear until much later.
What is happening now between Russia and the United States?
Greiner and Bott swap Today may mark the turmoil of US-Russian relations — nothing huge yet, but an important small breakthrough that can be built upon over time.
It is likely that both sides have walked to the brink of severing diplomatic relations and realized that they are not quite ready to break away from this relationship, even if its circumstances have been severely hampered by Russia’s brutal and illegal invasion of Ukraine.
Crucially, the United States never had an ambassador to Russia Since September. Biden has nominated career diplomat Lynn Tracy, and she is awaiting Senate confirmation. But at a certain point, if Russia does not allow her to take this diplomatic position in the Moscow Embassy, the United States will consider expelling Russia’s ambassador to the United States. These things are mutual.
The only way to protect US citizens in the world is diplomatic engagement. It does not necessarily contribute directly to US efforts to bolster Ukraine’s defense, and the White House reiterated on Thursday that it would not engage in broader negotiations with Russia (i.e., talks about war) without involving key partners (such as Ukraine). But it does show how diplomats can work to protect American citizens. One of the broader lessons from the Grenier incident is that it is simply not safe for Americans to visit Russia right now, as the US State Department said in its warnings.
The other takeaway is that the middle powers will continue to play a major role in an era of rising tensions between the nuclear superpowers. The United Arab Emirates, the country where Greiner and Booth were exchanged, has been a close partner of the United States and home to many fleeing from the Russians. Those countries that do not choose sides will remain powerful interlocutors.
Whether this is just the best deal possible or an indication of a new détente in US-Russian relations, this is good news: to the Greener family, to the Biden White House, and to all Americans who despaired over Greener’s arrest.
“Cases are often resolved through this kind of quid pro quo, and it takes a long time, so it can feel despondent when you haven’t heard any news for weeks and months, and you know an American is suffering in a foreign country,” Gilbert told me. “People are always working on this quietly behind the scenes, but we never see it until there is a day as happy as today.”
Clarification: An earlier version of this story said that Grenier’s arrest began in March, which is when the entire world learned. Her arrest was in February.
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